Reinventing politics: some post-electoral thoughts for labour

A Labour Dynasty Will Require Real Leadership on Climate 

How can climate concerned voters retain real hope for climate leadership by a Labour government that has shown little appetite for risk, even with massive poll leads and a massive majority? By remembering that climate breakdown means that Labour cannot avoid risk. It is faced with a choice between the risks of leading on climate now or the real risks that it will soon incur from food insecurity and flooding and much more from not leading. The world we are moving into is riskier and riskier. Labour gives itself the highest chances of achieving its political ambitions by earning the name “leader” on the climate issue, the mother of all such risks. We must not let them forget this.

Assuming that it aspires to a reign as long as the ousted Conservatives did, Keir Starmer’s Labour can be sure of one thing: its time in office will unavoidably be historic. The next 10-15 years will be the most unstable in Starmer’s lifetime to date due to a deadly deteriorating climate and (ahem) challenging international affairs. Declining Western dominance and rising risk of international food crisis (part climate-driven) are both facts of life that will make the need for a national adaptation plan obvious, eventually. Whether Labour can lead effectively for several terms depends on whether it gets ahead of events, and distances itself from the outgoing government’s neglectful approach to environmental security threats. 

Starmer’s Labour team surely knows of climate risks entangled within a deteriorating global order. Last year again world temperature records were broken, again, by the widest margins ever. Mainstream media reported on scientists admitting we are sailing past the 1.5°C maximum ceiling for global overheating and worrying we are nearing tipping points which could mean that future  generations of Britons will inherit 10 degrees C colder (think Canada) weather. Atlantic currents responsible for the UK’s temperate climate are estimated to break down around 2055 (and as early as c.2028!). Few aspiring leaderships have ever had such a clear opportunity to read writing that is blatantly on the wall. 

Labour can show that it is a safe pair of hands by demonstrating genuine foresight and leadership especially on climate adaptation, while truthfully blaming an outgoing government. If it waits for events to force its hands it inherits the Conservatives’ legacy. Growing numbers of environmentally concerned voters will likely support Labour in doing the right thing, while making it clear that, if they cannot, their support will go to someone who will promise to. The insurgent Green Party being the most obvious (but by no means the only) contender for this mantle.

There is no time like the present for Labour to act: echoing the infamous Treasury note of 2010 Labour should immediately highlight chaos they’ve inherited, from flood risks to food insecurity, and refuse to become complicit in further endangering the nation. Labour’s surest bet is actually to lay a cornerstone for its own long rule by enacting resilience policies that will build its own voting base and a reputation for vision and leadership. A national adaptation campaign and climate education that helps young people understand, protect and emotionally deal with their future are two important steps. These are what environmentally concerned citizens should all write our new MPs about.

Why must Labour act? In increasingly uncertain times genuinely ‘conservative’ messaging appeals easily to worries about conserving what we have. The outgoing government may have presaged the future a few weeks ago when Rishi Sunak’s campaign messaging foreshadowed the “darkest of days” while the government advised all Britons to prepare a 3 day kit that would allow them to survive an emergency. Among the reasons cited are rising risks of floods, other ‘natural’ disasters, and power outages. Conspicuously missing from Sunak’s messaging appeal, though, was any connection between most of the cited risks and human-caused dangerous climate change. This root cause of instability was treated by Sunak as a non-issue. The Conservatives’ most committed environmentalists felt compelled to resign (Goldsmith and Skidmore).

A party billing itself as a ‘safe pair of hands’ will instead look deeply untrustworthy if it becomes clear that its cautiousness does not extend beyond its own political fortunes, to embrace national preparedness. Starmer should secure both the nation’s future and its own by taking a golden opportunity to highlight just how little Conservatives have done in 15 years to prepare for rising risks, and to ostentatiously refuse the inheritance of 50 years of climate procrastination. It can do so with policies that will almost surely help to maintain its electoral margins.

For example, the youth group Teach The Future got Labour to commit to including greater climate education in their manifesto. Reneging on this commitment was irresponsible and self defeating, as kids who understand the future they face can start preparing — including by supporting climate responsible politicians. Assuming Labour plans on being the party of climate responsibility, no harm can come to it by supporting education.

The Labour-led government should make serious plans for adaptation both nationally and locally. The above mentioned climate news means that taking adaptation seriously simply is embracing reality. Local authorities and business should be supported to create adaptation plans. The process of reckoning, preparing for, and adapting to climate consequences makes their severity felt and thereby builds support for wider system change including emissions reduction. Undertaking adaptation is now likely the best way of building a greater mandate for carbon emissions reduction as well as making the future safer.

Labour’s administration has had a decidedly mixed start, climate-wise. On the plus side are early moves like getting rid of the Conservatives’ absurd de facto ban on onshore wind. On the minus side are ways in which Labour’s wild effort to turbo-charge ‘growth’, such as its rush to airport expansion, are climate-illiterate. Leadership from a new Government is vital, but let’s be realistic: it won’t come easily and won’t be enough to secure the policy changes we need - and certainly not quickly. All environmentally concerned people should make it clear that Labour should at the minimum break new ground by endorsing transformative adaptation- and education- policies that will build its future support while keeping the nation safe. Refusal to risk a massive majority, after the election, for the sake of the nation’s safety is indeed a mark that Labour’s risk aversion is dangerous for Britain. Labour must instead be leaders (‘statesmen’) rather than politicians, and environmentally concerned frustrated voters must remind them of it, offering our friendship and support…while letting them know our sense of profound responsibility means limited patience.